The AFCON 2025, set to be held in Morocco, is more than just a battle for continental glory—it will significantly influence the FIFA World Rankings of African nations. Historically, strong performances in AFCON have propelled teams up the rankings, while early exits have led to major drops.
With FIFA’s ranking formula heavily weighting competitive international matches, AFCON 2025 will serve as a critical event where teams can gain or lose significant ground in the global football hierarchy.
In this article, we’ll explore how AFCON 2025 will impact FIFA rankings, analyzing the factors that determine ranking changes, historical shifts from previous tournaments, and 5 key ranking changes we expect after the competition.
Understanding FIFA’s Ranking System & Why AFCON Matters
The FIFA World Rankings are based on a points system where teams earn or lose points based on:
✅ Match results – Wins yield points, while losses deduct points.
✅ Match importance – Competitive matches (like AFCON) are weighted more heavily than friendlies.
✅ Opponent strength – Beating a high-ranked team grants more points than beating a lower-ranked one.
✅ Regional strength – FIFA assigns different multipliers to matches in different confederations, but AFCON 2025 is among the most valuable continental tournaments.
AFCON matches carry significant ranking value because they involve:
- Competitive fixtures between top African teams
- Knockout matches with higher point rewards
- High-stakes encounters that influence seeding for future tournaments (e.g., World Cup qualifiers)
The Afcon 2025 serves as the most important ranking event for African nations outside the FIFA World Cup.
Historical FIFA Ranking Changes After AFCON
📌 AFCON 2023 – How Teams Rose & Fell
- 📈 Ivory Coast (+10 places, now 39th globally) – Winning AFCON 2023 gave Ivory Coast a major boost, as they climbed into the global top 40.
- 📈 Angola (+24 places, now 93rd globally) – A surprise quarter-final run saw Angola skyrocket 24 places, proving how a strong AFCON can transform rankings.
- 📉 Ghana (-4 places, now 77th globally) – A poor AFCON campaign led to Ghana’s worst FIFA ranking in years, emphasizing how an early exit can harm teams.
The Afcon 2025 tournament is expected to produce similar dramatic shifts, with some teams rising significantly and others suffering heavy ranking drops.
5 Key FIFA Ranking Changes to Expect After AFCON 2025
1️⃣ The AFCON 2025 Champion Will Skyrocket in the Rankings
🔹 What to Expect:
- The winner of AFCON 2025 will likely jump at least 8-12 places in the rankings.
- If a lower-ranked team like Mali or DR Congo wins, they could see a historic ranking jump into the top 30 globally.
- For higher-ranked teams like Morocco, Senegal, or Egypt, a title win could place them among the top 15 nations in the world.
🔹 Past Example:
- Algeria (AFCON 2019 Champions) – Climbed from 67th to 31st globally after their victory.
2️⃣ Morocco Could Become a Global Top 10 Team
🔹 What to Expect:
- Morocco is already the highest-ranked African team (No. 13 globally).
- If they win or reach the final, they could break into FIFA’s top 10 for the first time.
- This would make them the highest-ranked African team in history.
🔹 Why It Matters:
- Top 10 teams get better seeding in major tournaments (e.g., 2026 FIFA World Cup draw).
- It would increase Morocco’s global football reputation, attracting elite players to their league.
3️⃣ A Dark Horse Team Will Make a Big Leap
🔹 What to Expect:
- Every AFCON has a surprise team that shocks the continent (like South Africa in 1996 or Burkina Faso in 2013).
- If an underdog like Cape Verde, Angola, or Equatorial Guinea reaches the semi-finals or final, they could rise 20+ places in the FIFA rankings.
🔹 Past Example:
- Burkina Faso (AFCON 2013 Runners-up) – Rose 30 places in the FIFA rankings after reaching the final.
4️⃣ Underperforming Giants Will Plummet in the Rankings
🔹 What to Expect:
- Nigeria,Egypt and Cameroon are under immense pressure to perform.
- A group-stage exit would likely result in a drop of 5-10 places in the rankings.
- This would negatively impact their seeding for World Cup qualifiers, making their path to 2026 much harder.
🔹 Past Example:
- Egypt (AFCON 2021 Group Stage Exit) – Dropped from 34th to 47th globally due to their poor showing.
5️⃣ The FIFA Rankings Will Shape Africa’s World Cup Qualifying Seeds
🔹 What to Expect:
- FIFA uses rankings to determine World Cup qualifying pots.
- If a traditionally strong team like Algeria or Ghana falls out of the top 10 in Africa, they might end up in a harder qualifying group for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- This means AFCON 2025 could directly impact which teams qualify for the next World Cup.
🔹 Why It Matters:
- Top-ranked teams get easier paths to the World Cup, while lower-ranked teams face tougher groups.
Final Thoughts: AFCON 2025’s Impact on FIFA Rankings Will Be Huge
AFCON 2025 is set to bring major ranking shifts for African nations, with potential historic jumps and painful falls. The champion will receive a huge boost, while underachieving teams risk damaging their global reputation.
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Key Takeaways:
✅ The AFCON 2025 winner will rise 8-12 places in the FIFA rankings.
✅ Morocco could break into the global top 10 if they win or reach the final.
✅ A dark horse team (e.g., Angola, Mali) could jump 20+ places.
✅ Underperforming teams (Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon) could drop 5-10 spots.
✅ AFCON 2025 Rankings will affect World Cup qualifying seeding, making this tournament crucial.
💬 Which team do you think will benefit the most from AFCON 2025? Drop your predictions in the comments! 🚀
